PUBLISHED ASSESSMENT

Will the wealthy flee Colorado if a graduated income tax is passed? - The Colorado Sun Colorado Graduated Income Tax Calculator

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The article’s policy details, revenue claims and central conclusion that millionaire flight is usually limited receive substantial support. It also presents meaningful opposition and caveats. Its strongest Massachusetts migration claim is not fully reproducible, however, and early post-tax data cannot establish long-term causation. Evidence that taxes affect highly mobile professionals and business activity deserved fuller treatment and direct sourcing.

Evidence support

Substantial (74/100)

Colorado’s official ballot analysis supports the tax brackets, affected taxpayers, revenue estimate and spending purposes.
Official Massachusetts reporting confirms that surtax revenue substantially exceeded initial projections.
Peer-reviewed administrative-data research supports the claim that millionaire migration occurs but is generally small overall.
The Massachusetts migration conclusion remains preliminary, and the article does not reproduce the calculations behind its income-group figures.
Research shows stronger tax responses among mobile professionals and footloose businesses, qualifying the article’s broad framing.

Balance & context

Substantial (72/100)

The article includes supporters, opponents, business groups, wealthy taxpayers and an expert skeptical of premature conclusions.
It acknowledges tax-motivated departures, corporate-location effects and the inability to observe people deterred from moving into Massachusetts.
It explains revenue uses and Colorado’s wider fiscal context.
The opening language is dismissive of opponents, while credible evidence of stronger effects among particular workers and businesses receives limited attention.
It does not clearly distinguish short-term migration observations from evidence establishing causation or long-term effects.

Transparency

Substantial (76/100)

The article identifies its author, publication date, interviewees and organizational affiliations.
It links to official ballot materials, Massachusetts reporting, IRS-derived analysis and tax-incidence data.
The calculator discloses its assumptions, brackets, source code, privacy treatment and use of AI-assisted coding.
Key academic migration and corporate-tax studies are not directly cited or linked.
An anonymous attorney’s client anecdotes and the Massachusetts income-group calculation cannot be independently inspected from the article.

Confidence and coverage

Confidence in this analysis: Moderate confidence

Evidence coverage: Substantial coverage

The Boston Globe analysis underlying the Massachusetts income-group migration figures was not fully accessible.
Massachusetts has only a short post-policy observation period, limiting causal conclusions.
No Colorado-specific behavioral or economic-impact model was presented.

More than four strong external sources were examined, including official records and peer-reviewed studies.
The central policy and revenue claims are well documented.
The specific Massachusetts income breakdown was not independently reconstructed, and post-tax evidence remains temporally limited.

Sources considered

2026 Colorado State Ballot Information Booklet — Official details on Amendment 87’s brackets, taxpayer impacts, revenue and spending.
Delivering on Fair Share: Impact Report — Official Massachusetts revenue and expenditure figures.
IRS SOI Tax Stats — Migration Data — Defines the migration dataset, its income breakdowns and methodological change for 2022–2023.
Millionaire Migration and Taxation of the Elite: Evidence from Administrative Data — Finds millionaire tax flight exists but is small overall.
Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications — Reviews evidence showing migration responses vary substantially by population and jurisdiction.
State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity — Finds state taxes affect establishments, employment and capital, especially in footloose industries.
The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists — Shows substantial tax sensitivity among a particularly mobile, high-skilled subgroup.
Colorado: Who Pays? 7th Edition — Supports the stated distribution of Colorado state and local tax burdens.
Flat Tax Revolution: State Income Tax Reform — Supports the article’s count of states using flat individual income taxes.

This assesses evidence and presentation; it is not an overall truth verdict.

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Published assessment trend

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Evidence support — solid blueBalance & context — dashed purpleTransparency — dotted green

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Recorded public scores (0–100)
Date	Evidence support	Balance & context	Transparency
2026-10-23 (current)	74	72	76